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A running archive of research on AI infrastructure, model competition, and the bottlenecks that matter most across the stack.

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Micron’s $54 Billion Quarter: Locking In the Shortage
Latest Article
Markets · October 1, 2026 · 10 min read

Micron’s $54 Billion Quarter: Locking In the Shortage

Price growth is cooling, and Micron is trading part of its upside for price floors while the shortage still gives it leverage.

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The core Upcurious thesis

Three essays that frame the archive: what constrains AI, how model economics are shifting, and why task cost matters more than token price.

Foundational Bottlenecks · Mar 18

Which AI Bottleneck Matters Most Right Now?

The most important question in AI investing is what the system can physically support.

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Economics Pricing · Apr 27

How Agentic Work Broke Token Pricing

The price per token no longer tells you what a task costs.

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Infrastructure Compute · May 11

AI Is Still a Compute Story. For Now.

Demand is real. Spending is extreme. The missing pieces are not what most people think.

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Latest essays

Previous posts

Earlier newsletter essays, presented as durable research notes instead of a generic feed.

14 previous posts
Markets Sep 24, 2026 · 9 min read

Meta's Muse: Who Gets Paid When Agents Do the Buying?

Booking spent $8.2 billion last year acquiring customers. A personal AI agent puts that money in play, if it can get through the door.

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Security Sep 16, 2026 · 13 min read

The AI Security Trade

Where agent security demand lands, which public companies can capture it, and what the market already prices in.

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Safety Sep 5, 2026 · 9 min read

AI Safety Before Self-Improvement

What the Hugging Face incident reveals about containing and trusting agents that could help build their successors.

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Markets Aug 27, 2026 · 8 min read

NVIDIA's $96B Quarter, and What It Costs to Deliver

A record print and a bold guide. The nuance is on the balance sheet.

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Markets Aug 21, 2026 · 12 min read

A Cautious Bull's Map of the AI Trade

Stress-testing the structural integrity of a $700B infrastructure buildout.

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Models Jul 28, 2026 · 12 min read

The Frontier Premium, Part 2: Open Just Got Big

Kimi K3 lifted the floor. Eight days later, Opus 5 reset the frontier above it. Both are demand for compute.

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Markets Jul 20, 2026 · 12 min read

When Great Earnings Stop Being Enough

AI looks like the 1920s electricity boom in the buildout and financing, dot-com in the valuation, running at 2021 speed.

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Infrastructure Jun 30, 2026 · 11 min read

Micron's $41 Billion Quarter and the Memory Supercycle

Bits barely moved. Prices jumped roughly 60%. That gap is what a physical bottleneck looks like in an income statement.

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Models Jun 24, 2026 · 11 min read

Fable 5, GLM-5.2, and the Shrinking Frontier Premium

The capability gap is holding. The market willing to pay for it is narrowing.

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Infrastructure May 11, 2026 · 10 min read

AI Is Still a Compute Story. For Now.

Demand is real. Spending is extreme. And the missing pieces aren't what most people think.

Read article
Pricing Apr 27, 2026 · 10 min read

How Agentic Work Broke Token Pricing

Seven frontier AI models in 18 days. The price per token no longer tells you what a task costs.

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Models Apr 16, 2026 · 9 min read

The Model Race Is Heating Up

What Anthropic vs. OpenAI means for enterprise software, compute demand, and how you work.

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Infrastructure Mar 26, 2026 · 9 min read

The Quiet Force Reshaping AI Infrastructure

Why the most important cost driver in AI isn't compute, and what happens when it gets compressed.

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Bottlenecks Mar 18, 2026 · 8 min read

Which AI Bottleneck Matters Most Right Now?

The most important question in AI investing is what the system can physically support.

Read article